Florida and Michigan Loom Large

There was copious discussion of the Florida and Michigan delegate situations on this blog. I always maintained that should Obama claim the victory (which he now has, lugubriously), he would struggle in those two states. Swing voters would not be forgiving of such neglect.

According to Real Clear Politics (the most dependable source in polling), here are the current numbers in those states:

Florida: McCain +8.3
Michigan: McCain +1.6

Now to be fair, much of the above data is based on old numbers. Obama has clearly made gains in the last week. He could still win those states, especially Michigan, but it will require a healthy degree of diplomatic skill.

Can Mr. Obama afford to lose both these states? Probably not. He could overcome defeats with surprise victories in two of Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, and Nevada. Of course, he would also need to hold on to Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

If it does come down to Florida and Michigan, however, and John McCain wins, Sir Barack will have nobody to blame but himself.

Fathers Rule the Day

Make no mistake, it is the least of my intentions to take anything away from fathers on their day of recognition. I had once hoped to become a father, and while certain impediments still stand in my way, I assume I will one day realize that dream.

When it comes to politics, however, one has to observe the overwhelming bias that favors fathers over mothers. Yet again, both presidential candidates make this their day of celebration, with none to represent that other parental day in early May.

Was it because of a lack of viable candidates? Certainly not. And yet, women still find themselves fettered by that glass ceiling. I had hoped that would change in this term, but if the backlash against the genuine Geraldine Ferraro is any indication, we have still a time to wait.

Where Hath Hillary Gone?

It seems, by all media accounts, that our dear Mrs. Clinton has vanished from the public eye. The bewilderment as to her whereabouts has struck not only the regular news media (aka the Obama for President support group), but the famed paparazzi as well.

The only available reports indicate that Hillary has taken a much-needed respite to spend time with her family. A noble initiative, I would ordinarily say, were it not that it ran so contrary to my personal interests. In the past, I would like to at least envision my chosen lady in a certain place, campaigning away with her typical eloquence.

Based on what little information exists, I shall give you my inferences, which are nothing more than pure speculation. Take heed, however, that when it comes to Mrs. Clinton, I share a greater wavelength of connection. The possibilities:

1. Her residence in Chappaqua, NY - This is certainly the most likely destination, and yet one would think it would be known. I wager not.

2. Some private Caribbean island - One hopes not the place where Bertha Mason lived (see Jane Eyre's piece here for more details on why that would be ill-advised). I tend to think she would choose somewhere of more interest to her personally.

3. Pemberley Estate - I have reasoned it all out, and this seems the most probable. We all know Mrs. Clinton's fascination with Pride and Prejudice...what better opportunity to explore the intricacies of a famous novel than now. I can only hope the current residents have welcomed her with open arms, as I would have.

The Tale of the Assistant Housekeeper

While I would never feign to assert that the painstaking process of selecting the Pemberley Assistant Housekeeper position was as tedious as Sir Barack Obama's search for a Vice President, there are some relevant parallels. Ah, that was a mouthful of Mrs. Bennet's pork loin.

We had a plethora of demands to meet, much of it dispersed among varying demographics. The lady servants desired female representation (the lead Housekeeper was of the male persuasion), and they were joined in their feminist crusade by my lovely sister, Georgiana. They had a particular lady in mind, a Mrs. Reynolds.

Mr. Wickham (before his character was impugned), however, was adamant that the lead Housekeeper be affixed with someone more diversified in talent. The ladies' choice, you see, failed to deliver in that regard, because her policies were quite similar to that of the lead Housekeeper. To appoint Mr. Wickham's choice, however, would have incited a gender-based uproar, and we could not have that.

Ultimately, we decided on Mrs. Reynolds. As some of you may recall, she eventually became lead Housekeeper, playing a monumental role in opening Lizzy's mind to the salubriousness of Pemberley.

Take heed, Mr. Obama. Appeal to the heart of women, for they will reward you with determination, for or against. My dear Hillary is the proper choice.

What Will My Dear Hillary Do Next?

Yesterday, I proffered a blueprint for how this blog will function from this point forward. I will be debating between the two remaining presidential misfits: Sir Barack Obama and Templar John McCain. All this, while continuing to assert my never-waning enthusiasm for Mrs. Clinton's political accumen and physical prowess.

Today, we shall focus on my favorite of those three personages. Much attention has been afforded to what my dear Hillary will do next. I give you a thorough breakdown of each possibility:

1. Mr. Obama offers her the Vice Presidency, and she accepts. This, I believe, is what we are all striving for, but would Mr. Obama truly accept such a superior mind? Would he not feel threatened by her sheer good looks, her commanding eloquence? Would it not often happen that immediately preceding a major crisis, he would pull her aside and say, "Sweetcakes, what ever should I do?" It all seems so improbable.

2. No Vice Presidency, so Mrs. Clinton returns to the Senate. Many are describing her as the next Ted Kennedy (a title I would avoid like the Bubonic Plague), posing as the Senate's most authoritative and potent figure. There is an element of appeal here, certainly, but it stings of disappointment. Could I have simply accepted Lizzy's sister Kitty as a consolation prize? Heresy!

3. Ah yes, the most appealing option. Spurned by the Democratic party and lauded by fervent supporters, Mrs. Clinton remains as Senator, but makes it undoubtedly clear that her goal is to run again in 2012 or 2016. In her first post-electoral act, she saddles husband Bill to a divorce settlement, then seeks comfort in the arms of a more worthy lover. And that, my dear friends, is where I shall be waiting, with expectant arms.

All is Not Lost

It has been quite a lengthy period since I last employed this platform. My reasoning? Grief, mourning, lugubriousness, depression, tribulation, mortification, bereavement, melancholy. This, I feel most inexorably, for the American people, who have squandered their democratic rights on a mere fantasy (just as I have squandered my affections...but I still hope!)

I find myself in a bit of a perplexing situation. Do I dedicate the first indentation on my glossy voter card to my sworn enemy, Sir Barack Obama, or do I defect to an equally unappetizing choice, John McCain?

And yet, I almost relish this new vocation of the "swing voter." Suddenly, overtures are being made from both sides, attempting to lure those heartbroken Hillblazers such as myself with wing-shaped promises and angst-filled entreaties. Much like those disgraceful electors we refer to as Superdelegates, I shall sit upon my lofty perch and comment as the days go on.

Final determination? November. And yes, I am back for good, and loyal as ever to my dear Hillary and her luscious physique.

Pastor Wright a Worthy Adversary

In the wake of Reverend Wright's Obama-defaming national tour, I can come to only one conclusion; he, like me, is vying for my dear Hillary's affections.

How else to explain a behavioral display so disarming of Senator Obama's chances? If my dear Hillary manages to turn this election around, it will be much to do with Wright. I cannot help feeling jealous, knowing what a greater hand he would have played, when I exerted myself tirelessly to let my lady know the fullness of my feelings.

One poll had North Carolina within 5 points (most have it 10-15, however) and Indiana seems to be shifting Hillary's way. This while at a major financial disadvantage. If only I had my former fortune, I could expend it on something more gratifying than a new acre of chrysanthemums!

My Deepest Apologies

I wish I could attribute my recent absences to some worthy cause, such as rescuing my true love's sister from cosmic disgrace. Unfortunately, my explanation is far more self-serving, exposing me as a personage wholly undeserving of your readership.

I have been - ashamedly - electioned out for a few days. With so much intensity leading up to the Pennsylvania elections, it was undeniable that I would experience a letdown (to my credit, I predicted the results exactly). My affections for Hillary remained in full form, to be sure, but my ability to watch CNN waned. I simply could not endure any more commentary!

Now that I have taken the much-needed respite, I am ready to commence my analyses once more. Perhaps you enjoyed the break as much as I, and we can both approach the coming Indiana and North Carolina primaries with considerable gusto.

I also promised an explanation for why I have developed a fondness for the nation of Sweden, and I assure it will come shortly. Perhaps after I dream of my dear Hillary, myself, and three bottles of Crown Royale in between.

My Dear Hillary Takes Pennsylvania

The returns are still accumulating, and it remains to be seen whether my dear Hillary can win by double digits (a symbolic number that could bode well for her).

Either way, she should claim victory in the 8-10 points category. A formidable showing, no doubt, though she will need more to truly overtake the front-running Barack Obama. With Indiana and North Carolina on the horizon, she must take advantage of this much-needed momentum to climb the polls quickly.

Momentum, of course, depends on your media. How will they run with this story? Will three days of good publicity amount to genuine progress, or will it fall quickly to the Thames floor? As a newly patriotic American, I hope this is the beginning of the Hillary movement.

Return from Holiday

To my faithful readers who have long awaited my return, I am back from my week-long holiday (an excursion that I probably should have published. I feared too many paparazzi). Beginning today, I will be back for good, submitting my usual equitable dissertations on the current political sphere.

Let me just express three quick sentiments:

1. England is not what it was. I sojourned back to the land of my roots, only to find a nation consumed with modernity, forgetting its old aristocratic identity and embracing elements of such foreign notions as socialism and respect for the common man. Improvements? In many ways, yes, but not entirely so.

2. I have a new favorite nation: Sweden. There will be more on that tomorrow.

3. The long-anticipated Pennsylvania vote is tomorrow. My prediction? My dear Hillary 55%, Sir Barack Obama 45%.

More to come soon, I assure you.

Obama Darth Vader in the Making!

I have experienced the pleasure of watching your popular fantasy series, Star Wars. What a gripping tale, which could only be made better with some stronger acting performances. Why not Colin Firth as Luke? How about Keira Knightley as Princess Leia? I would leave Harrison Ford alone, though.

Well, as much as the Jedi bring good to the universe, they also have some crafty tricks up their sleeves. Look what can happen when those talents fall into the wrong hands? We get Darth Vader.

Sir Barack Obama has been quite effective at wielding those Jedi mind tricks. As comically depicted here, he has somehow managed to swing the press under his spell. Beware, I say. We could be electing Darth Vader.

Clinton Marrital Squabbles an Opening for Me?

From what I understand, the Clinton marriage has always had some questionable elements to it. As a nobleman, I have battled furiously against any malevolent wishes for their marriage, but my genteel nature is being tested quite a bit now.

It seems the Clintons are spatting right now. No, not over Monica Lewinsky, or Paula Jones, or Jennifer Flowers, but over trade with Colombia. A trivial matter, you assume? I beg to differ.

It has long been speculated that their marriage is one of convenience: a political union. Would not a political union be most threatened by a political squabble? Gentility condemns my lustful inferences, but I may be beyond repair. Could the door now be open for me? Please let it be so, my dear Hillary.

Hillary Makes Use of Her...Assets

The disparity in finances between the Obama and Clinton camps is enormous, which is the predominant reason why he continues to gain on Hillary in states she once led by large margins.

An interesting thing happened in Texas and Ohio, however. My dear Hillary, wisening up from past failures, held off a good portion of her resources to the end. The results were staggering. In the final week, she regained much of her lead.

We are witnessing the same pattern in Pennsylvania. Aside from a horrendous bowling performance, Sir Barack Obama launched a 3-week British-Royal-Navy blitz on the state. Should he not have gained points? It was a near certainty.

And now, my dear Hillary has graced our screens with three ads. One condemns the Bush administration (quite rightly), one employs the venerable Governor Ed Rendell, and the third (my favorite) demonstrates Hillary's sentimental ties to the state.

Pennsylvania, you must vote for her!

Delegate System One for Brighton Quacks

In my prior life, we of the highest nobility would occasionally have soirees together in London. The discussions would range from business to politics, and we always decided things on a majority basis.

Then one day, some alchemist charlatans from Brighton claimed to have made gold in their pump rooms. We all sensed it as nonsense and swiftly voted them out (a contingent from Portsmouth was especially vocal about it, making use of their boots as much as their lips). Dissastisfied with the way they were treated, the Brighton group decided to make their claims anyway, defying the traditional rules. A few of my nation's more gullible citizens ate it up, and they were swindled out of their money.

I bring up this story because it resembles the current delegate equation. Why have a skewed proportional system when winner-take-all works much more effectively? To this day, all the TV networks have different interpretations of the delegate count. What a nonsensical scrum!

Look at how simply the Republicans were able to delineate their primary. Furthermore, the General Election is decided by a winner-take-all, which would seem to benefit the side whose candidate performs best in those situations.

According to Sean Wilentz's fool-proof calculations, my dear Hillary's big-state appeal would carry her to the nomination. She would lead even without the inclusion of Florida and Michigan, two states Mr. Obama murderously discarded.

Should the Democrats be run like genteel folk, or Brighton Quacks? If you answered the latter, you probably had too many puffs at an Obama rally.

Pennsylvania the Keystone For Clinton

Every day, we the people are treated to a new round of polling, generally from such inconsistent groups as Gallup, Rasmussen, Zogby, Survey USA, PPD and the likes.

The numbers which seem to be drawing the most attention are the Democratic National polls, dominated by Sir Barack Obama as of late (with the occasional close one). Pundits, television networks, and Obama proponents have used these numbers as evidence that the race is over.

The other pro-Obama statistic has been in national McCain vs. Democrat polls. These have been fairly close, but Obama is polling a tad bit better. These, some would say, further the argument that Obama is the better general election candidate.

The problem with both of these arguments is that Pennsylvania has yet to happen. Between now and April 22nd, the only polls that truly matter are the Pennsylvania Primary, and predictions have been erratic enough to leave us wondering what the result will be.

I have studied the numbers incessantly, and past trends have shown huge general movement with single-day gains, much the result of the media. Here is my barometer for Hillary's chances:

Lose Pennsylvania - Race is over, barring a MAJOR scandal (apparently more egregious than Wright)

Win Pennsylvania by 5 points or less - The only way this works into a positive is if the media places Obama's expectations higher than they should be (ie. Ohio and Texas).

Win Pennsylvania by 5-10 - Will bring some momentum, but probably not enough to gain real traction.

Win Pennsylvania by 10-15 - A tremendous victory that might be enough to sway some North Carolina and Indiana voters.

Win Pennsylvaina by 15-20 - A major news story that carries Hillary Clinton into a surge. What she does with that surge would depend on the politics from there.

Win Pennsylvania by 20+ - A dramatic win that exposes Barack Obama's failures in major swing states. A result like this would similarly bring the popular vote much closer, and put Hillary in an almost even match for the nomination.