Monday, June 16, 2008

Florida and Michigan Loom Large

There was copious discussion of the Florida and Michigan delegate situations on this blog. I always maintained that should Obama claim the victory (which he now has, lugubriously), he would struggle in those two states. Swing voters would not be forgiving of such neglect.

According to Real Clear Politics (the most dependable source in polling), here are the current numbers in those states:

Florida: McCain +8.3
Michigan: McCain +1.6

Now to be fair, much of the above data is based on old numbers. Obama has clearly made gains in the last week. He could still win those states, especially Michigan, but it will require a healthy degree of diplomatic skill.

Can Mr. Obama afford to lose both these states? Probably not. He could overcome defeats with surprise victories in two of Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, and Nevada. Of course, he would also need to hold on to Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

If it does come down to Florida and Michigan, however, and John McCain wins, Sir Barack will have nobody to blame but himself.

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