It's a Popular (ity) Contest Now

The common media epithet for the January 29th Florida Democratic Primary was "beauty contest." Furthermore, the biggest issue surrounding the New Hampshire Primary was likability. Having delved enough into the history of your High School culture, I question whether this political race is just another popularity contest, pitting Socs against Greasers, jocks against T-Birds. Is it indeed a popularity contest?

I say it is, but in a different way. If this were, in fact, a beauty contest, my choice would be obvious. 60 years or not, Hillary Clinton is one sumptuous temptress. Deep inside, every male journalist has to be wondering what lies behind the pants-suit curtain (is it the fear of rejection that makes them favor Obama?).

But leaving the Meryton gutter behind, let's focus on the word "popularity." Pundits for Sir Barack Obama have argued that Mrs. Clinton has no chance to catch him. Some have gone even further, suggesting that she should drop out (Mr. Obama - to his credit - retreated from that position yesterday).

I am the first to accept the pledged delegate differential as daunting, but the "popular" vote can still be accomplished. It was universally acknowledged that - with Florida and Michigan - my dear Hillary Clinton would have had an excellent chance to catch up in popular vote. When Mr. Obama tramelled that attempt, many saw Mr. Obama's lead as insurmountable.

I entreat you, readers, to examine this chart from the illustrious Jay Cost. As Michael Barone shows here, my dear Hillary still has a decent chance. She will need her strongest showings in Indiana, Montana, and South Dakota, states that may or may not be favorable to her. She must exceed expectations in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, while minimizing the damage in North Carolina and Oregon.

The other critical contest is Puerto Rico, where lawmakers have successfully changed the vote from a caucus to a primary. Clinton has soared with Latino voters (a large percentage of the Puerto Rican population, we assume), so if she can gain over 300,000 votes there, she would be in a prime position. Let's also factor in the growing trend of states wanting to feel important. The best way to have an impact on the race is to vote Clinton, so I expect her to gain a few supporters that way too.

In sum, Mrs. Clinton may not win a High School popularity contest with Mr. Obama, but she can win the popular vote. It was much the same way with Mr. Bennet, as he was first inclined towards Mr. Wickham, but later settled on me. The United States can do the same.